A new spell of torrential rain is expected to batter the Himalayan belt, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of a volatile “two-system interaction” that could unleash flash floods, landslides, and river swelling in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir.
According to the IMD bulletin, the meeting of an active western disturbance with the monsoon trough is likely to intensify rainfall in the coming days.
"Extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand on Sept 1, over Himachal Pradesh between Aug 31 and Sept 2, and over Jammu on Sept 2," it said, adding that northwest India faces a prolonged wet spell for three to four days.
Rare weather overlap
While western disturbances typically dominate winter in north India, their convergence with the monsoon axis during this season often produces highly unstable conditions.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said such overlaps were responsible for this August’s intense downpours. "Northwest India saw three such active interactions in Aug, which led to incidents in Dharali (Uttarakhand), Kishtwar (Jammu & Kashmir), Jammu, and Mandi (Himachal Pradesh)," he noted.
The August rains have already broken records. Northwest India logged 265 mm—the highest August total since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901. "Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means the rivers will be flooded, and it will impact cities and towns downstream. We should keep this in mind," Mohapatra cautioned.
Uttarakhand on ‘red alert’
The looming rain threat has prompted the IMD to raise the warning level in parts of Uttarakhand. "The intense interaction will cause heavy showers in parts of Uttarakhand for the next 48 hours. We have upgraded the weather alert to ‘red' in Dehradun, Tehri, Pauri, Haridwar, Nainital, Champawat, Bageshwar, and Udham Singh Nagar districts," said Rohit Thapliyal, senior scientist at the regional meteorological centre in Dehradun.
The weather office explained that the monsoon trough is currently positioned south of its usual track, while a cyclonic circulation: classified as a western disturbance, sits over north Pakistan and adjoining Punjab. Moisture-laden winds are also being pulled in from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal via circulations over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
"This overlap of the western disturbance with the monsoon axis enhances wind shifts and moisture build-up, leading to widespread heavy rains in the Himalayan foothills," an official said.
Rising risks in fragile terrain
In the past 24 hours, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have already recorded heavy to very heavy rainfall, while Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh also witnessed downpours.
With the terrain saturated, meteorologists fear that fresh rain could worsen landslides, road blockages, and flash flood risks.
The IMD has advised authorities in hill states to remain vigilant, especially along pilgrimage routes and tourist circuits, where disruptions are likely.
(With inputs from ToI)
According to the IMD bulletin, the meeting of an active western disturbance with the monsoon trough is likely to intensify rainfall in the coming days.
"Extremely heavy rainfall is very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand on Sept 1, over Himachal Pradesh between Aug 31 and Sept 2, and over Jammu on Sept 2," it said, adding that northwest India faces a prolonged wet spell for three to four days.
Rare weather overlap
While western disturbances typically dominate winter in north India, their convergence with the monsoon axis during this season often produces highly unstable conditions.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said such overlaps were responsible for this August’s intense downpours. "Northwest India saw three such active interactions in Aug, which led to incidents in Dharali (Uttarakhand), Kishtwar (Jammu & Kashmir), Jammu, and Mandi (Himachal Pradesh)," he noted.
The August rains have already broken records. Northwest India logged 265 mm—the highest August total since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901. "Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means the rivers will be flooded, and it will impact cities and towns downstream. We should keep this in mind," Mohapatra cautioned.
Uttarakhand on ‘red alert’
The looming rain threat has prompted the IMD to raise the warning level in parts of Uttarakhand. "The intense interaction will cause heavy showers in parts of Uttarakhand for the next 48 hours. We have upgraded the weather alert to ‘red' in Dehradun, Tehri, Pauri, Haridwar, Nainital, Champawat, Bageshwar, and Udham Singh Nagar districts," said Rohit Thapliyal, senior scientist at the regional meteorological centre in Dehradun.
The weather office explained that the monsoon trough is currently positioned south of its usual track, while a cyclonic circulation: classified as a western disturbance, sits over north Pakistan and adjoining Punjab. Moisture-laden winds are also being pulled in from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal via circulations over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
"This overlap of the western disturbance with the monsoon axis enhances wind shifts and moisture build-up, leading to widespread heavy rains in the Himalayan foothills," an official said.
Rising risks in fragile terrain
In the past 24 hours, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have already recorded heavy to very heavy rainfall, while Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh also witnessed downpours.
With the terrain saturated, meteorologists fear that fresh rain could worsen landslides, road blockages, and flash flood risks.
The IMD has advised authorities in hill states to remain vigilant, especially along pilgrimage routes and tourist circuits, where disruptions are likely.
(With inputs from ToI)
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