How and why one of the Europe's biggest technology companies has lost $130 billion-plus from its value in less than a year

ASML, a key player in the semiconductor supply chain , has seen its market value plummet by over $130 billion in less than a year, dropping from a peak of $429.5 billion in July 2024 to $297 billion by Tuesday’s close, per S&P Capital IQ data. The decline reportedly stems from U.S. export restrictions to China and uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. ASML is one of the biggest technology companies in Europe.

The Dutch company, the sole producer of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines used by chipmakers like TSMC to manufacture advanced chips, has faced significant headwinds. “All the equipment manufacturers in the space have come down because they are concentrating all the fears around … the U.S. restrictions to China,” Stephane Houri, head of equity research at ODDO BHF, told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Wednesday. Houri also pointed to tariff concerns and questions about over-investment in AI, noting uncertainty over whether “demand is not at the level that many people expect.”

What's hurting ASML
ASML’s inability to ship its most advanced EUV machines to China has limited its sales potential. CEO Christophe Fouquet told CNBC in January that the company’s China business is expected to shrink in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024. Recently, ASML began shipping its next-generation High NA machines, but global chip stocks continue to face pressure from trade uncertainties.

Despite these challenges, a potential U.S.-Europe trade deal could ease market concerns. “If there is an agreement in the end with President Trump and ... Europe and many other countries, they probably will benefit from the relief in the market, and notably in the sector,” Houri said. Analysts remain optimistic, with LSEG data showing an average price target of 779 euros for ASML, suggesting a 17% upside from Tuesday’s close. A recent Wells Fargo note, following discussions with ASML’s management, highlighted the company’s positive outlook for 2025 and 2026, driven by demand from firms like Samsung and Intel for next-generation chipmaking tools.