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Trump Tariffs and .... How Microsoft is the biggest winner this earnings season for Big Tech

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Microsoft Corp. shares are within 1.5% of their all-time high from July 2024, driven by a robust 16% gain in May 2025, the stock’s best monthly performance in over three years, according to Bloomberg. The rally reflects a broader U.S. equity rebound and renewed confidence in Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing business, fueled by strong artificial intelligence (AI) demand. Azure’s fiscal third-quarter revenue grew 33%, surpassing Wall Street expectations, with non-AI services like databases and storage outperforming, as noted by CFO Amy Hood.

The stock’s resurgence contrasts with its 2024 performance, when Microsoft lagged behind the “Magnificent Seven” peers -- Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla -- with a 12% gain, weighed down by concerns over Azure growth and AI competition. In 2025, Microsoft’s 9% advance has outpaced most peers except Meta (up 10%), bolstered by limited exposure to President Trump’s tariffs and strong Big Tech earnings. Analysts see Microsoft as the biggest Big Tech winner this earnings season.

Analysts are optimistic, with TD Cowen projecting Azure’s AI-related revenue to soar to $24 billion by fiscal 2026, up from $4 billion in 2024. They raised their price target to $540, implying an 18% upside from Wednesday’s close, as reported by Bloomberg. Of 72 Bloomberg-tracked analysts, 66 recommend buying Microsoft, with only six holding neutral ratings and none advising to sell. TD Cowen noted that Azure’s mid-30% growth trajectory could drive renewed investor interest in Microsoft.

Despite trading at a premium—30 times forward profits compared to the Nasdaq 100’s 26 times—some see limited short-term upside after recent sideways trading, per Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments. However, Kevin Walkush of Jensen Investment Management remains bullish, citing Microsoft’s ability to monetize high-margin AI services. “Microsoft is probably one of the best long opportunities in AI,” Walkush told Bloomberg, highlighting its capacity for sustained revenue growth.

Microsoft’s Azure platform powers AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, alongside traditional cloud services. The company’s strategic AI investments, including partnerships and infrastructure expansion, position it to capitalize on growing enterprise demand. Recent Twitter posts echo this sentiment, with users noting Microsoft’s AI-driven cloud dominance and stock resilience, though some caution about valuation concerns given its premium pricing.

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